UYal's blog

🧭 Something feels off in the Korean stock market.
The index is climbing, yet the momentum feels disconnected.
Even the so-called market leaders are printing doji candles—stalling, hesitating.

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📈 The KOSPI rose in H1 2025—but without real “tech momentum”

In early 2020s, Korea’s stock market was driven by a very clear logic:
Work-from-home → Cloud demand → Semiconductor surge → Samsung Electronics rally.

But in 2025? That story is no longer true.
Samsung Electronics has remained relatively quiet this time.
Instead, the market’s upward drive came from names like Hanwha Aerospace and Doosan Enerbility.

These stocks now hold significant weight in ETFs like KODEX 200,
yet they’ve recently started printing doji candles,
often a sign of market fatigue or indecision.

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🧬 No real tech? No sustainable momentum.

The KOSDAQ, Korea’s tech-heavy board, had clear momentum waves:
First with EV battery stocks, then biotech names like Alteogen.

But the KOSPI hasn’t shown any real innovation-driven growth.
Doosan Enerbility’s rise came from escaping losses—a structural rebound, not tech innovation.
Banking stocks rallied on policy speculation (corporate law reform), not fundamentals.

This is not a tech cycle.
It’s a market rising on short-term hope, not sustainable change.

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📉 Technical signals: Overheated, and pausing

On a weekly RSI basis, the KOSPI has entered overbought territory.
Combine that with repeated doji candles and foreign investor outflows,
and we’re looking at a market losing steam.

Longer-term charts (weekly/monthly) also show waning upward pressure.

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🧨 Structural risks are returning

Let’s not forget the lingering issues in the Korean market:

• Corporate spin-offs that dilute shareholders
• Governance reform triggering insider risk
• Rate-cut optimism already priced in

The upside feels exhausted.
The weight of the market is slowly shifting downward.

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✍️ Final thoughts: It’s not growth—it’s inflation of expectations

This KOSPI rally doesn’t feel like real growth.
It feels like expansion driven by policy, hope, and temporary headlines.

The leaders are tired.
The charts are overheated.
There’s no tech, no clear narrative, and no lasting confidence.

Maybe now’s the time to step back and observe—not chase the last gains.

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